AS WELL as Lothian East and Edinburgh East and Musselburgh, here are 40 seats to keep an eye on across the UK:

  1. Aberdeenshire North and Moray East: A new constituency, this seat shot into the spotlight when Conservative MP David Duguid – who is de facto the incumbent – was controversially informed he was not being selected, supposedly on health grounds, though he himself insisted he was fit to stand. Coming in in his place was Scottish Conservative leader Douglas Ross – a decision which inevitably proved highly contentious, to the point where Ross has now indicated he will step down as leader. He now faces a close challenge to win election, as the SNP will be highly hopeful of their candidate Seamus Logan defeating him.
  2. Basildon and Billericay: Richard Holden, the chairman of the Conservative Party, could become one of the highest-profile casualties of the night in this seat. He currently represents a constituency in Durham but is attempting to be elected in this constituency in Essex, in theory a very safe Tory seat with a majority of more than 20,000 at the last election. But polling suggests that Reform UK could take a major scalp here and their candidate Stephen Conlay win election in his place. Labour’s Alex Harrison too could be in with a shout.
  3. Birmingham Ladywood: Shabana Mahmood, the Shadow Justice Secretary and a close ally of Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer, might well be looking anxiously over her shoulder here – something that would seem ridiculous on the face of it, given her 2019 majority was more than 28,000. But independent candidate Akhmed Yakoob, dubbed the ‘TikTok lawyer’, caused a major stir here when he won nearly 70,000 votes in the West Midlands mayoral election – and his strong support for Gaza could win him a lot of votes in the constituency, which is one of the most multi-cultural in Britain. It’s almost impossible for an independent to win a seat at a General Election, so Mahmood remains very much the favourite, but stranger things have happened.
  4. Boston and Skegness: This Lincolnshire seat is traditionally as safe as they come for the Conservatives, but their incumbent MP Matt Warman could be one of several Tory MPs to fall to Reform UK, whose candidate here is their former leader Richard Rice.
  5. Bournemouth East: The Conservatives’ Tobias Ellwood could lose his seat here. Labour have been making good ground in the town and could take both Bournemouth seats from the Tories.
  6. Braintree: The seat of Home Secretary James Cleverly since 2015, his would be a huge scalp for Labour to claim, but polling suggests the two parties are neck and neck here, despite him defending a majority approaching 25,000. Could Labour’s Matthew Wright deliver the night’s ‘Portillo Moment’ ? Quite possibly.
  7. Brighton Kemptown and Peacehaven: There was major controversy here early in the election campaign when incumbent Labour MP Lloyd Russell-Moyle was informed he had been suspended from the party over a complaint about his behaviour he claimed to be “politically motivated” – as there was no time to get to the truth of the matter, he was therefore ineligible to stand for Labour. The fact that Russell-Moyle was one of the party’s more prominent left-wing MPs inevitably led to accusations that not everything was above board, particularly as it coincided with what many labelled a purge of left-wing Labour candidates, and those voices only grew louder when the new Labour candidate was revealed to be Chris Ward, Keir Starmer’s former chief of staff, who was parachuted in without the say of the local party members. Needless to say, there was huge discontent in the local party which could open the door to the Greens, who are very strong in the city. But though it’s a safe bet they should vastly improve on the 2,000 votes they achieved last time here as they pick up left-wingers unhappy with a popular incumbent MP being replaced by a Starmer loyalist, it’s a huge ask to see them taking the seat. The Conservatives too have historically been competitive in this seat, which they held until 2017, but the state of the polls nationally gives them little chance this time around.
  8. Brighton Pavilion: This seat is of course famous for delivering the Greens’ first ever MP, Caroline Lucas, who has represented it since 2010. She is standing down this time and Labour sense an opportunity. Their candidate Tom Gray is putting up a strong fight against former Green leader Sian Berry. Nevertheless, the Greens remain favourites here. Brighton is, after all, one of the UK’s most left-wing cities and so voters here may not be as enamoured with Keir Starmer’s Labour Party as others in the country.
  9. Bristol Central: Labour is set to have a great night tonight, but it won’t be flawless. In some areas – particularly cities with large student populations – it is losing considerable number of votes on its left flank to the Greens. That looks likely to result in Shadow Culture Secretary Thangam Debbonaire losing her Bristol Central seat to the Greens, whose co-leader Carla Denyer is standing against her. The Greens didn’t even have a candidate here at the 2019 election but they have made huge gains in Bristol at local elections and the polls suggest a Green win here is likely, unseating someone who otherwise would have been a cabinet minister in the next government.
  10. Caerfyrddin: This seat in Carmarthernshire in south-west Wales is held by the Conservatives’ Chief Whip Simon Hart, but he could well be one of the big names to be booted out at this election. Labour’s Martha O’Neil is in with a chance but this seat is a likely gain for Plaid Cymru’s Ann Davies.
  11. Castle Point: Of all the seats listed here, this is the only one which has no chance of changing hands. Statistically, this south Essex seat, covering Canvey Island, is the safest Conservative seat in the country, delivering a whopping 76.7% vote share for the Tories’ Rebecca Harris. There is no way she will lose her seat here, but this constituency will be interesting to watch as a measure of quite how far the Tories will fall at this election. What will the vote share be cut to? Will it be Labour or Reform UK who sweep up the votes of thousands of disaffected Tory voters?
  12. Cheltenham: Part of the reason for the Liberal Democrats’ struggles in recent years has been that their voters are often spread out too much around the county, rather than being concentrated in winnable seats. That didn’t used to be the case though as, prior to their near-total wipeout in 2015, the south-west of England was very much their heartland. They could go some way to colouring that part of the map yellow again this time round, and this Gloucestershire seat could deliver them a thumping win over Justice Secretary Alex Chalk, Max Wilkinson their candidate.
  13. Chingford and Woodford Green: This seat in North-East London has been held by former Conservative leader Iain Duncan Smith since 1997. Unseating him was a major Labour goal in 2019 and their candidate Faiza Shaheen came mightily close even on a bad night for her party, cutting his majority to just over 1,000. Being a highly popular local candidate, combined with Labour’s huge poll lead, she seemed certain to do so this time, only for her to be deselected by the party in hugely controversial circumstances at the last minute, Brent councillor Shama Tatler being put up in her place – the reasoning given for her deselection was over historic social media posts, but for many it seemed to fit into a wider pattern of left-wing candidates being removed. But Shaheen did not take this lying down, quitting the party and running as an independent. The strength of support for her in the constituency has been clear, meaning this seat now appears a fascinating three-way marginal that could go any way.
  14. Chippenham: Another south-west seat the Liberal Democrats look set to retake, this Wiltshire seat looks set to deliver a crushing defeat for Government minister Michelle Donelan, with the Lib Dems’ Sarah Gibson predicted to win by a sizeable margin.
  15. Clacton: This Essex seat is, of course, the one Reform UK leader Nigel Farage is attempting to win. Giles Watling of the Conservatives won it comfortably by more than 24,000 votes in 2019 but Farage, with his immense profile, coupled with the Tories’ dire polling, is widely considered the favourite to win. A wildcard too here is Labour candidate Jovan Owusu-Nepaul, who gained some serious traction on social media in recent days – leading, rather bizarrely, to a major reprimand from his own party! A local Labour activist who had been campaigning with him claims that the party “intimidated” Owusu-Nepaul and told him to “never come back” to the constituency, which the party allegedly believes to be unwinnable for them. It’s all rather strange, but it will be interesting to see if he or the Tory incumbent can prevent Farage finally winning a seat at Westminster.
  16. Dewsbury and Batley: A new constituency in West Yorkshire, this would appear on the face of it to be a likely win for Labour’s Heather Iqbal, a former adviser to Rachel Reeves seen as being very close to the Labour leadership. But this area has seen a backlash against Labour over the war in Gaza, several independent unseating Labour candidates here at the local elections on explicitly pro-Gaza platforms. Another independent, Iqbal Mohamed, is hoping to do the same here, but that will be a much tougher feat and Labour are the clear favourites.
  17. Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale: A vast seat covering a huge swathe of south Scotland, the Conservatives’ David Mundell has represented it since 2005 but his majority has been reducing of late and the current state of the polls could spell trouble for him here. The SNP have been second here in recent elections and their candidate Kim Marshall is in with a shout but so is Labour’s Daniel Coleman, who could benefit from his party’s dominant poll lead.
  18. Godalming and Ash: Chancellor Jeremy Hunt looks set to be the biggest casualty of the night if he, as he appears likely, loses this Surrey seat. What would usually be a happy hunting ground for the Conservatives is predicted to swing to the Liberal Democrats and Paul Follows this time around, part of the so-called ‘Blue Wall’ of affluent traditionally Tory seats in the south-east of England which appear to be swinging away from the party under its more populist current guise.
  19. Holborn and St Pancras: The central London constituency of Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer, this constituency is mostly worth watching because it seems inevitable he will be the new Prime Minister by the night’s end, so will likely give his victory speech here after being elected. There is, though, the most outside of outside chances of him coming under pressure from independent candidate Andrew Feinstein, a South African former ANC politician and former Labour member who was a strong supporter of former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn. He has been gaining some traction but him getting close enough to really challenge Starmer is unlikely in the extreme.
  20. Ilford North: The seat of Shadow Health Secretary Wes Streeting should be safe enough for him, even though traditionally the Conservatives have always put up a good fight here. His strongest challenge could actually come from British Palestinian Leanne Mohamad, who could prosper off anger about Labour’s stance on the war in Gaza, but anything other than a Streeting win would be a massive shock.
  21. Inverclyde and Renfrewshire West: This could be switched for any number of Central Belt seats which should be neck and neck between the SNP and Labour. Ronnie Cowan of the SNP is the sitting MP but Labour’s Martin McCluskey may well be the favourite here.
  22. Islington North: This constituency in central London has had the same MP for 41 years. Former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn was first elected in 1983 and, even on a tough night for his party in 2019, won by a whopping majority of more than 26,000. But of course, Corbyn is no longer in Labour, after his successor as leader, Keir Starmer, kicked him out of the parliamentary party. He is now standing as an independent and is in a very close race with Labour’s candidate Praful Nargund. Corbyn is immensely popular in his constituency and it’s a good bet that he would have retained his seat had he announced his decision to stand months back, but doing so just weeks before the election has left him with a major battle on his hands, as many of his constituents assume he is still the Labour candidate. Almost no true independents have won seats at Westminster in a General Election, so Corbyn certainly faces an uphill battle to retain his seat, but he is sure to put up a strong challenge and will likely run Labour very close – and could even pull off a famous upset. It will be fascinating to watch.
  23. Midlothian: Like Lothian East, this is a top target seat for Labour to win from the SNP. It has historically been very close between the two parties in recent years, so current polling means Labour’s Kirsty McNeill is likely to make it over the line and unseat Owen Thompson.
  24. Monmouthshire: As well as their Chief Whip, the Conservatives could lose another major player in Wales in the form of Welsh Secretary David TC Davies. This seat on the border with England is projected to go to Labour this time, their candidate Catherine Fookes.
  25. Newark: This sizeable seat in the east of Nottinghamshire could, if polls are to be believed, provide one of the closest races of the night. The Conservatives’ former Cabinet minister Robert Jenrick would ordinarily be the favourite here, but latest polling suggests he could lose his seat by finishing just 1% behind his Labour opponent Saj Ahmad. This one will go down to the wire.
  26. North Down: Alliance hold this Northern Irish seat but the DUP are strong challengers – this could be a close one.
  27. North East Somerset and Hanham: One of the most high-profile Brexiteer Conservatives of the last decade, a defeat for Jacob Rees-Mogg would sum up what’s looking likely to be a terrible night for the party. But that seems a more than likely scenario, as Labour’s Dan Norris – who has a high profile himself as the Mayor of the West of England – looks set to unseat him based on current polling.
  28. North Herefordshire: The Greens are generally seen as being most of a threat to Labour, particularly in winning over left-wing and younger voters unhappy with the current direction of the Labour Party. But it’s not quite as simple as that, as can be seen in this seat. Rural and very much true blue Conservative, the Tories have held it for a century, and its sitting MP Sir Bill Wiggin won a majority of nearly 25,000 last time out. But the true scale of problems the party is facing is well illustrated by the fact a seat that should be safe as houses for them looks likely to fall to the Greens’ Ellie Chowns.
  29. North West Essex: Seen by many as a potential future leader of the Conservatives, Business Secretary Kemi Badenoch will first need to win her seat. Given the constituency that existed under the previous boundaries had delivered her a whopping majority upwards of 27,000 last time out, you wouldn’t think this would be a challenge. But she is said to be in a surprisingly tight race with Labour’s Issy Waite. A Labour win would be a massive shock even with the polls how they are, but on a particularly magical night for the party, this seat is not completely out of reach.
  30. Portsmouth North: Another possible Conservative leader, particularly if the party seeks to move back towards the centre, Penny Mordaunt first has a real battle on her hands to retain the seat. Labour are very bullish about their chances here and their candidate Amanda Martin could well deliver one of the night’s most memorable moments.
  31. Richmond and Northallerton: Could it really happen? Could a sitting Prime Minister really lose his seat at a General Election? Rishi Sunak’s seat, which covers a huge swathe of largely rural North Yorkshire, should be safe for him even at the party’s current nadir. But Labour’s Tom Wilson is polling well enough to at least give him some slight cause for concern. Chalk this one up as highly unlikely, but worth keeping an eye on nonetheless.
  32. Rochdale: This seat in the town of the same name in Greater Manchester already made a slew of headlines earlier this year when a by-election there was won by veteran left-winger George Galloway, standing for the Workers Party of Britain. Previously a Labour seat, they suffered a disastrous time, dropping their candidate Azhar Ali over comments made about Israel, but too late to remove him from the ballot paper. Galloway now hopes to retain the seat but will face a stiffer challenge from Labour this time, whose candidate is political journalist Paul Waugh.
  33. South Basildon and East Thurrock: This Essex seat looks like a three-way marginal between the Conservatives, Labour and Reform UK. The Tories’ Stephen Metcalfe is its sitting MP but Labour’s Jack Ferguson and Reform’s James McMurdock will be both be hopeful of victory.
  34. South Dorset: Polls here are absolutely neck and neck between Conservative incumbent Richard Drax and Labour’s Lloyd Hatton. This one has the potential to hinge on a few hundred votes.
  35. South West Norfolk: The seat of former Prime Minster Liz Truss since 2010, it will be interesting to see what effect her calamitous 49-day stint in the top job has at this election. On paper, with a majority of more than 26,000, she should have nothing to fear, but could she be one of the most high-profile scalps of the night?
  36. Stoke-on-Trent North: The Conservatives’ Deputy Chairman Jonathan Gullis is something of a hate figure to many on the left, so his defeat in this seat would certainly be well toasted in Labour circles. Their candidate David Williams is a strong bet to do just that.
  37. Tatton: Another Cabinet minister at serious risk of being unseated is Esther McVey, who polls suggest could well lose to Labour’s Ryan Jude in this Cheshire constituency. She could well be one of the night’s highest-profile casualties.
  38. Waveney Valley: The Greens could pick up a seat from the Conservatives in this constituency, which straddles the Norfolk-Suffolk border. That might seem an odd fit in very much traditional Tory Middle England but last year’s local elections saw the Greens win a swathe of seats here and their co-leader Adrian Ramsay looks a good bet to defeat Conservative candidate Richard Rout.
  39. Welwyn Hatfield: This seat in south Hertfordshire, just north of London, has been in the hands of Grant Shapps for nearly 20 years after his election in 2005. But the veteran Conservative minister, currently serving as Defence Secretary, looks highly likely to be ousted by Labour and their candidate Andrew Lewin. A fair few Government ministers could well lose their seats at this election, though some have a better hope of hanging on than others. But for Shapps, it would be a big surprise if he held on to his seat.
  40. Worthing West: Strong work at the local level over many years in this area of West Sussex could pay dividends for Labour at this election, with their candidate Rebecca Cooper potentially in line to benefit by unseating veteran Conservative MP Peter Bottomley. It won’t be easy, but this is now a potentially winnable seat for the party, something which would have been unthinkable a few years ago.