East Lothian: fears for services as county population soars

The population surge has led to renewed calls by East Lothian Council’s leader for more government funding for the local authority.

New census data released this week by the National Records of Scotland (NRS) shows that, between 2011 and 2022, the population of the county grew by 12.6 per cent, from 99,717 to 112,300, with continued growth expected. The county saw the second highest rate of population growth in Scotland, behind only Midlothian (16.1 per cent growth).

However, East Lothian is the only area where there was a 10 per cent or more increase in population in the periods between 2001 and 2011 and also 2011 and 2022.

Most council areas in the Central Belt saw increases in population, particularly those around Edinburgh. These increases were driven, says NRS, by migration from within Scotland and elsewhere. Most of the council areas that saw a decrease in population are in the west or south west.

There are also 11,000 over 75s in East Lothian – 9.8 per cent of the overall population, compared with the Scottish average of 9.0 per cent. Just over a fifth of East Lothian residents are over 65.

The county has 16.7 per cent of its population under 14 years old.

East Lothian also had the nation’s second largest growth in the number of households, at 13.7 per cent.

A spokesperson for East Lothian Health and Social Care Partnership said that the ageing population was bringing additional pressures on the delivery of health services.

They said: “The census data has confirmed that East Lothian is one of Scotland’s fastest growing areas, with a significantly ageing population.

“While this is true across the country, an ageing population will dramatically impact the delivery of health and social care services going forward.

“However, East Lothian, like other local authorities and health boards, is being asked to deliver more with less funds available.”

The population across the nation grew by 141,200 (2.7 per cent) since the previous census in 2011.

This is a slower rate of growth than between 2001 and 2011, when the population grew by 233,400 (4.6 per cent).

On Census Day – March 20, 2022 – the population of Scotland was estimated at 5,436,600. This is the largest population ever recorded by Scotland’s census.

Councillor Norman Hampshire (Lab), East Lothian Council leader, said: “We have known for quite some time that East Lothian was one of Scotland’s fastest growing areas.

“However, the results show that population growth is already more significant than projected, and it has been sustained for over 20 years.

“But, despite the rate of growth, our grant from central government – which provides most of the money we need to run services – is the third lowest in Scotland per head of population.

“There is no recognition within the grant received of East Lothian’s increasing population and the recurring rising costs; for example, the staffing and running of new schools.”

And he added: “Council tax provides around a quarter of the council’s resource base.

“While it is true that people living in new housing pay council tax that previously wouldn’t have been available as income, this doesn’t cover the cost of providing services to them – such as schools, bin collections or social care.

“Income overall is not keeping pace with the cost of delivering services and this is putting huge pressure on our budget, with a significant funding shortfall anticipated in the years ahead. The reality is that, without further support, we will be unable to sustain the level of services currently being provided.”

Paul McLennan (SNP), East Lothian MSP, stressed that decisions on council funding were agreed by COSLA, the cross-party, councillor-led body which champions councils’ work.

He said: “The census shows the continuing growth in East Lothian’s population.

“This shows the attractiveness of East Lothian as a place to live – it presents both challenges and opportunities; challenges in how we fund the growth we require in infrastructure to support a larger population.

“In this regard, East Lothian Council will need to engage with Scottish Government – only last month the Deputy First Minister held a meeting with East Lothian Council on this issue, which was described as ‘encouraging and productive’ by all.

“In reference to the points made about funding made to East Lothian Council – the distribution is agreed by COSLA leaders, which Councillor Hampshire attends on East Lothian Council’s behalf and agrees with other council leaders.”

Craig Hoy (Conservative), South Scotland MSP, said: “East Lothian’s high population growth has resulted in noticeable pressures on GP practices, schools and transport infrastructure in the county, and residents rightly have concerns about this.

“The council administration needs to do more to ensure that adequate infrastructure and public services are put in place before new housing comes on stream.

“The SNP government, which sets the targets for new housing expansion, must provide additional funding for areas of Scotland which are growing rapidly.

“This can also be achieved through additional contributions by developers, who are making significant profits out of the development of new homes. ”

Martin Whitfield (Lab), South Scotland MSP, called the results a “wake-up call” for ministers as he called for “fairer” funding to be given to the county.

He said: “Despite this significant and sustained growth, East Lothian continues to miss out on its fair share of Scottish Government funding, sitting third from bottom out of 32 councils for funding per head of population.

“I often hear complaints from constituents about a lack of new infrastructure to assist with the pressures created by this population growth. These concerns are understandable and correct.

“However, the stark reality is that three-quarters of East Lothian Council’s funding comes from government and the grant the council receives has simply not increased in line with the rapidly growing population.

“These census figures should act as a wake-up call for ministers, force them to recognise the ongoing increased demand we are experiencing in East Lothian and ensure they fund local services accordingly.”

A spokesperson for the Scottish Government said: “Distribution of funding for individual local authorities is determined by a needs-based formula that is agreed with COSLA on behalf of all 32 councils, and is subject to regular review.

“The formula uses the most up-to-date information for the full range of indicators, including population.

“We are always open to suggestions to improve the funding formula. However, any proposals must come through COSLA in the first instance.

“In this financial year, East Lothian Council is receiving £221.5m to fund local services, up 3.8 per cent on the previous year.”

Jon Wroth-Smith, director of census statistics, NRS, said of Scotland’s census data: “People aged 65 and over outnumber people under 15.

“It is important that we understand how our population is ageing so we can prepare for it.

“These changes will put greater demand on health and social care services.”